Tesla's 700 Mile Battery Is Coming Sooner Than You Think

[ScoobyDoo]

How many ICE sold vehicles have a range of 700 miles?
The larger diesel trucks with extra gas tanks... but how many other vehicles?

I think this kind of thinking is what is keeping many people from switching to EVs.

Ford, GM, and Dodge all sell half ton pick ups with options well over that range. My 9 year old f150 gets ~650mi and any road trip I take, having less than 500 usable real world 75mph cruise, with 4 people and 500-1000lbs of gear is a real let down. I reserved the tri-motor and honestly don't think I'll follow through with buying it unless the production version has 600mi+ of range.

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[TruckElectric]

Ford, GM, and Dodge all sell half ton pick ups with options well over that range. My 9 year old f150 gets ~650mi and any road trip I take, having less than 500 usable real world 75mph cruise, with 4 people and 500-1000lbs of gear is a real let down. I reserved the tri-motor and honestly don't think I'll follow through with buying it unless the production version has 600mi+ of range.

Given that Tesla keeps making their power electronics more efficient(using less power) and the motors used in the CT will be more efficient as well, which affords the battery to allow for more range, it wouldn't surprise me one bit that when the CT rolls off the production line it will show 600 mile range.

 

[ajdelange]

I afraid that's unlikely. There just aren't that many percent left between 100 and state of the art efficiencies in motors and inverters. Say they got 5% more - a miracle for sure but it would only add 25 miles to the range i.e. bring it to 525.

The only practical way to get more range is to add more battery. This they can, of course, do but again are unlikely to. Anything is possible but it is most likely that the 500 miles has Tesla's best estimates about motor, electronics and battery advancements "priced in".

 

[TruckElectric]

The only practical way to get more range is to add more battery. This they can, of course, do but again are unlikely to. Anything is possible but it is most likely that the 500 miles has Tesla's best estimates about motor, electronics and battery advancements "priced in".

We will have to wait and see after Battery Day to be certain on the range and whether it's "priced in".

 

[TerryMack]

If you have an apartment, how are you affording a car with a 700 mile battery? And why are you, instead of a place you can add charging to?

-Crissa

I am wondering about the same thing. I believe I will buy a home by the time the CyberTrucks are available. My Tesla stock will see to that! I moved back to the town I grew up in and homes are $1M and above! It will take me a while for my stock to grow... ;-). I am able to afford the CT due to the stock. A Home is next!...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I afraid that's unlikely. There just aren't that many percent left between 100 and state of the art efficiencies in motors and inverters. Say they got 5% more - a miracle for sure but it would only add 25 miles to the range i.e. bring it to 525.

The only practical way to get more range is to add more battery. This they can, of course, do but again are unlikely to. Anything is possible but it is most likely that the 500 miles has Tesla's best estimates about motor, electronics and battery advancements "priced in".

Yea, I know that's potentially a real stretch to have the production model have a 20% increase in range. Maybe the fact that lucid now has a 517mi sedan will pressure the Cybertruck being that its a truck into having some internal design changes for more batteries to make it well exceed lucids 517mi sedan. Excited for battery day that's for sure!

 

[TruckElectric]

Yea, I know that's potentially a real stretch to have the production model have a 20% increase in range. Maybe the fact that lucid now has a 517mi sedan will pressure the Cybertruck being that its a truck into having some internal design changes for more batteries to make it well exceed lucids 517mi sedan. Excited for battery day that's for sure!

No one really knows what kind of battery Lucid is using, they just say it's "proprietary". Lucid, formerly Atieva, supplies the battery's for all Formula E race cars.

The CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson, came from Tesla and was the main man behind the Model S.

If I know Elon he will not rest until he bests Lucid.

 

[TruckElectric]

No one really knows what kind of battery Lucid is using, they just say it's "proprietary". Lucid, formerly Atieva, supples the battery's for all Formula E race cars.

The CEO and CTO of Lucid, Peter Rawlinson, came from Tesla and was the main man behind the Model S.

If I know Elon he will not rest until he bests Lucid.

But then, he may already have.

 

[ajdelange]

An S has a battery that people call a 100 kWh battery because it takes almost 100 kWh to charge it up. The Lucid has a battery that their president has referred to as a 130 kW battery. The S has an EPA range of 403 miles. Put a 130 kW battery into it and it would, presumably go about (130/100)*403 = 523.9. Lucid sends their car to a testing lab for a dynamometer test that follows the EPA protocol which test returns a value of 517 miles. Really no surprise there but the popular motoring press and the Lucid fans are trumpeting the arrival of the Tesla killer with Peter Rawlinson giving interviews hinting that it is a Lucid breakthrough in torque ripple reduction, 900V architecture and the use of silicon carbide FETs that has made this possible. He also hints at battery breaktrhoughs and that the battery used in the dyno test was "considerably" smaller than the battery they originally planned for. They then go out and do a road test between LAX and SFO with their car and an S. Their car goes 1.3 times farther. More headlines. But they still advertise 400 miles on their website. This is, I am informed, going to be changed. The faithful believe the 517 mile car is here and that you will be able to buy it soon. And who knows, they might be right.

Now lets look at this thread. It starts with a video in which some of Jeff Dahn's work at Dalhousie is discussed. The latest hot area of investigation is the "anode free" (where do you connect the + wire?) battery. Laboratory investigation suggests that this technology might, if the lab result can be brought to the factory floor, to 70% greater specific energy than that of the current technology. The math is easy: 500*1.7 = 850. The CT will have 850 miles of range (though for some reason the interpretation is somewhat toned down to 700 miles).

Lets also comment that specific energies are now around .2 kWh/kg and battery costs about $150.kWh. 100 kWh of battery thus weighs about 1100 lbs and costs about $15,000,

Based on all this what are Peter Rawlinson and Elon Musk going to do? Only they know. Rawlinson has the opportunity to take out some battery thereby saving himself some money (which he could apply to reducing the selling price of his car or increasing his profit or some of each) but only to the extent that he still has more than 403 mile EPA range so that he can keep the Tesla killer claim. But Elon can easily increase the range of the S today by adding more battery at the cost of profitability and weight. But he also has whatever battery day is to reveal up his sleeve. No one really knows what that is but it's likely that reduced cost and increased specific energy are going to be part of it. Those batteries will go into future releases of the S and its range will be better than that of the Lucid. We used to call this incremental increase in capaability by just enough to top the competition "leap frogging". As more and more players come into the market we are going to see more and more of it. Advances are indeed being made in technology but as I said in an earlier post you can't make a motor or inverter/rectifier more efficient than 100% (though many claim they have) and so we look to battery tech as the source of these jumps.

 

[TruckElectric]

I afraid that's unlikely. There just aren't that many percent left between 100 and state of the art efficiencies in motors and inverters. Say they got 5% more - a miracle for sure but it would only add 25 miles to the range i.e. bring it to 525.

My bad. My intent was to point out the increased efficiencies that Tesla continues to strive for and achieve and not to imply that those alone would get to a 600 mile range in the CT.

I have stated previously about the improved battery technology and that was the main reason for increased range but not everyone has seen those post I guess.

 

[TruckElectric]

An S has a battery that people call a 100 kWh battery because it takes almost 100 kWh to charge it up. The Lucid has a battery that their president has referred to as a 130 kW battery. The S has an EPA range of 403 miles. Put a 130 kW battery into it and it would, presumably go about (130/100)*403 = 523.9.

Yep.

Really no surprise there but the popular motoring press and the Lucid fans are trumpeting the arrival of the Tesla killer

Peter Rawlinson has stated that the Lucid Air is going after a different market than the Model S. It's trying to compete with a higher end luxury cars such as Mercedes-Benz S-Class. So it's not really a Model S killer.

Peter Rawlinson giving interviews hinting that it is a Lucid breakthrough in torque ripple reduction, 900V architecture and the use of silicon carbide FETs that has made this possible.

Also a smaller, more efficient motor.

Based on all this what are Peter Rawlinson and Elon Musk going to do?

I know what Elon is going to do because he has made it clear what his goals and vision are. I can't say the same for Peter Rawlinson other than he is trying to make a successful luxury electric car .

No one really knows what that is but it's likely that reduced cost and increased specific energy are going to be part of it. Those batteries will go into future releases of the S and its range will be better than that of the Lucid.

And the CT, Y and 3

We used to call this incremental increase in capaability by just enough to top the competition "leap frogging

Also BMOC(Big man on campus), bragging rights, Top Dog, One-upmanship, Best-in-class......


Over all I agree with most of what you posted. Not bad for a retired EE I would say.

 

[ajdelange]

Also a smaller, more efficient motor.

This particular point is of especial interest. Yes, Rawlinson "discovered" the IPSM just as Musk did a couple of years earlier. When Tesla retrofitted IPSM into the S and X (resulting in the Raven versions) the result was, in the X, 57 miles extra range on the same battery. That's a 19% improvement which is pretty dramatic (and didn't all, clearly, come from the better efficiency of IPMSM relative to IM). When this was realized Tesla had a choice. They could have upped the range a smidge to 300 miles and removed some batteries saving weight and $. But they chose instead to take the whole improvement in range. Rawlinson evidently also swapped his IM for IPMSM and got over 100 extra miles from so doing but with the bigger battery he thought he was going to need based on IM. It remains to be seen how he will respond to this discovery. He can do what Musk did or take out battery or do something in between. It will be interesting to see. He is still (AFAIK) offering reservations on a "more than 400 mile" car.

 

[ProfessorRon]

An S has a battery that people call a 100 kWh battery because it takes almost 100 kWh to charge it up. The Lucid has a battery that their president has referred to as a 130 kW battery. The S has an EPA range of 403 miles. Put a 130 kW battery into it and it would, presumably go about (130/100)*403 = 523.9. Lucid sends their car to a testing lab for a dynamometer test that follows the EPA protocol which test returns a value of 517 miles. Really no surprise there but the popular motoring press and the Lucid fans are trumpeting the arrival of the Tesla killer with Peter Rawlinson giving interviews hinting that it is a Lucid breakthrough in torque ripple reduction, 900V architecture and the use of silicon carbide FETs that has made this possible. He also hints at battery breaktrhoughs and that the battery used in the dyno test was "considerably" smaller than the battery they originally planned for. They then go out and do a road test between LAX and SFO with their car and an S. Their car goes 1.3 times farther. More headlines. But they still advertise 400 miles on their website. This is, I am informed, going to be changed. The faithful believe the 517 mile car is here and that you will be able to buy it soon. And who knows, they might be right.

Now lets look at this thread. It starts with a video in which some of Jeff Dahn's work at Dalousie is discussed. The latest hot area of investigation is the "anode free" (where do you connect the + wire?) battery. Laboratory investigation suggests that this technology might, if the lab result can be brought to the factory floor, to 70% greater specific energy than that of the current technology. The math is easy: 500*1.7 = 850. The CT will have 850 miles of range (though for some reason the interpretation is somewhat toned down to 700 miles).

Lets also comment that specific energies are now around .2 kWh/kg and battery costs about $150.kWh. 100 kWh of battery thus weighs about 1100 lbs and costs about $15,000,

Based on all this what are Peter Rawlinson and Elon Musk going to do? Only they know. Rawlinson has the opportunity to take out some battery thereby saving himself some money (which he could apply to reducing the selling price of his car or increasing his profit or some of each) but only to the extent that he still has more than 403 mile EPA range so that he can keep the Tesla killer claim. But Elon can easily increase the range of the S today by adding more battery at the cost of profitability and weight. But he also has whatever battery day is to reveal up his sleeve. No one really knows what that is but it's likely that reduced cost and increased specific energy are going to be part of it. Those batteries will go into future releases of the S and its range will be better than that of the Lucid. We used to call this incremental increase in capaability by just enough to top the competition "leap frogging". As more and more players come into the market we are going to see more and more of it. Advances are indeed being made in technology but as I said in an earlier post you can't make a motor or inverter/rectifier more efficient than 100% (though many claim they have) and so we look to battery tech as the source of these jumps.

But what cost? They stated starts at $100,000. Do you get 500 miles for that money or that much range is another $10,000?

 

[Crissa]

What does Lucid think they're competing with, if not the S?

And what then, does the S compete with?

-Crissa

 

[ajdelange]

Cost is something like $150/kWh. These vehicles will require from 250 - 500 Wh/mi.