What would blow your mind?

[Jhodgesatmb]

We all remember Elon Musk saying, way back at the end of January, regarding Battery Day: “It's gonna blow your mind. It blows my mind, and I know it!". Since then there has been endless hypothesizing about what he meant and what he means to tell us. I am done with that for now because it makes my head hurt.

So I am interested in what would blow ‘your’ mind to hear on Battery Day. Here is my list:

1. 5,000+ charging cycles (At 500 miles per charge -> 2.5 million mile battery)
2. V4 chargers to 500+ Kw (Charges in half the time)
3. Reduced weight (better performance or less battery)
4. Improved stability so temperature control is less of an issue (Improved energy management, safer)
5. At least a 20% range improvement (Go another 100 miles per charge)

We have already seen announcements by various companies along several of these metrics, so to blow ‘my’ mind Tesla would have to hit several of them in one announcement.

But like I said, what would blow your minds?

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[ajdelange]

> 500 Wh/kg
< $100/kWh

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

> 500 Wh/kg
< $100/kWh

What is the current state of batteries (M 3/Y) in terms of energy density? What percentage improvement would 500 represent? I know that Mr. Musk wants less than $100/kWh but I am curious as to why you do.

 

[ajdelange]

What is the current state of batteries (M 3/Y) in terms of energy density? What percentage improvement would 500 represent?

I think we are about half way there so this would represent a 100% improvement.

I know that Mr. Musk wants less than $100/kWh but I am curious as to why you do.

The selfish reason is, of course, that a car with a cheaper battery will be sold for less (assuming the manufacturer is willing to share some of the cost reduction with the consumer). Or for the same price but with longer range. The broader reason is that this is the number that has been bandied about as the one that achieves cost parity between ICE and BEV. Whether he understand any of the implications of BEV vs. ICE or no the common man will know what to do when the BEV car is cheaper than the ICE equivalent. This will be the turning point. That will lead to more BEV production, more economy of scale and prices lower still.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I think we are about half way there so this would represent a 100% improvement.

The selfish reason is, of course, that a car with a cheaper battery will be sold for less (assuming the manufacturer is willing to share some of the cost reduction with the consumer). Or for the same price but with longer range. The broader reason is that this is the number that has been bandied about as the one that achieves cost parity between ICE and BEV. Whether he understand any of the implications of BEV vs. ICE or no the common man will know what to do when the BEV car is cheaper than the ICE equivalent. This will be the turning point. That will lead to more BEV production, more economy of scale and prices lower still.

My understanding is that Tesla passed <$100/kWh with the Model 3/Y batteries and that Tesla is trying to reduce it further. I could of course have misread that because I am not citing the source in this response. Of course going less than ICE is very important, and then having a second life for vehicle batteries once they hit 80% would also be very important for society.

 

[ajdelange]

I didn't put that last one (#1 on your list in No. 1) because I am pretty confident that we will get this one.

 

[cybrtrk_maybe]

I've read a lot of great things about the CT, but to "blow my mind" I think it would need to be double the range for half the price. It would take a while to sink in.

 

[ldjessee]

1. 5,000+ charging cycles (At 500 miles per charge -> 2.5 million mile battery)
2. V4 chargers to 500+ Kw (Charges in half the time)
3. Reduced weight (better performance or less battery)
4. Improved stability so temperature control is less of an issue (Improved energy management, safer)
5. At least a 20% range improvement (Go another 100 miles per charge)

We have already seen announcements by various companies along several of these metrics, so to blow ‘my’ mind Tesla would have to hit several of them in one announcement.

But like I said, what would blow your minds?

1. could happen...
2. Not sure if at battery day, but I expect such an announcement for CyberTruck between now and its shipping to customers.
3. I expect this to keep happening over time.
4. I think it is more that the battery is less effected by temperature (not that the battery causes heat less), which makes it easier to thermally manage.
5. This will happen over time, maybe before the CyberTruck starts shipping, but maybe within the first year, after they see some real world data, Tesla will slowly dial back the limitations on how much of the battery can be used, thus increasing the range.

And for me, what would blow my mind:
1. The solar vault cover is included by default on Dual and Tri-motor.
2. They drop the single motor and make the dual motor the cost of the single and offer a quad motor for the price of the tri motor.
3. They redesign the truck to allow for a mid-gate people are wanting.
4. They design the frunk to be able to house a winch, including wiring for such.
5. They have available (probably thru partners) camper and 5th wheels designed just for the CyberTruck.

 

[Crissa]

Mid-gate, mid-gate, mid-gate...

-Crissa

Honestly, I expect battery day will be new battery folding machines and a lowered per-cell cost.
Being able to buy a Power Wall without solar... pretty please?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

1. could happen...
2. Not sure if at battery day, but I expect such an announcement for CyberTruck between now and its shipping to customers.
3. I expect this to keep happening over time.
4. I think it is more that the battery is less effected by temperature (not that the battery causes heat less), which makes it easier to thermally manage.
5. This will happen over time, maybe before the CyberTruck starts shipping, but maybe within the first year, after they see some real world data, Tesla will slowly dial back the limitations on how much of the battery can be used, thus increasing the range.

And for me, what would blow my mind:
1. The solar vault cover is included by default on Dual and Tri-motor.
2. They drop the single motor and make the dual motor the cost of the single and offer a quad motor for the price of the tri motor.
3. They redesign the truck to allow for a mid-gate people are wanting.
4. They design the frunk to be able to house a winch, including wiring for such.
5. They have available (probably thru partners) camper and 5th wheels designed just for the CyberTruck.

I was referring to Battery Day though, so I was looking for your (all) thoughts on what would blow your mind as an announcement for batteries. But I guess you answered the question by addressing what would blow my mind. Of course, I meant for multiple of those items to be announced at the same time. Individually none of them would blow my mind, especially considering announcements over that past month.

 

[Mini2nut]

Battery Day on 9/22 will be mind blowing! Yes, they will be introducing a 2nd generation of batteries but that‘s just a teaser. My best GUESS is that the real mind blowing part will be the introduction of V2G (vehicle to grid) charging using Tesla owned chargers that Tesla will pay for (hardware and labor included). The million mile batteries are the key to making it possible.

Think about buying and selling energy using your Tesla BEV. Think of your Tesla and it’s battery pack like five Power Walls that are now mobile. Think about leasing your battery pack from Tesla. Think about the power going out for days at home due to a storm and using your Tesla to power your home for 2-3 days. When it needs to be recharged hit up a Tesla Supercharger and power your home again. With a million Tesla vehicles now on the road the V2G vision will soon be a reality. Utility companies will no longer have the need for new power plants or Peaker Plants. Wind and solar energy can now be stored. Energy can be purchased low when demand is down and sold when its high. It is all part of Tesla‘s vision to a transition the world to sustainable energy and wean us off fossil fuels.

I could be 100% wrong but I think I have put most of the puzzle pieces together. And don’t forget about the very important piece of the puzzle to make all of this work. Tesla Autobidder software. Tesla hires the cream of the crop engineers who will make it happen. And Tesla announced a 5 for 1 stock split today!

 

[Dixon1430]

Battery Day on 9/22 will be mind blowing! Yes, they will be introducing a 2nd generation of batteries but that‘s just a teaser. My best GUESS is that the real mind blowing part will be the introduction of V2G (vehicle to grid) charging using Tesla owned chargers that Tesla will pay for (hardware and labor included). The million mile batteries are the key to making it possible.

Think about buying and selling energy using your Tesla BEV. Think about leasing your battery pack from Tesla. Think about the power going out for days at home due to a storm and using your Tesla to power your home for 2-3 days. When it needs to be recharged hit up a Tesla Supercharger and rinse and repeat. With a million Tesla vehicles now on the road the V2G vision will soon be a reality. Utility companies will no longer have the need for new power plants. Wind and solar energy can be stored. Energy can be purchased low when demand is down and sold when its high.

I could be 100% wrong but also remember that Tesla hires the cream of the crop engineers who will make it happen. And Tesla announced a 5 for 1 stock split today.

And there we go! I was reading through waiting for someone to mention V2G!!! The tri-motor could represent more than 10 powerwalls, depending of course on batter size... Just insane. This would blow my mind and make me incredibly happy. Of course with the assumption that increase in cycle capacity/million mile battery also occurs...

 

[Mini2nut]

The new generation of tabless battery technology, yet to be revealed, will make it happen in the next few years. It‘s rumored that Tesla will be able to produce the new batteries so fast it will make your head spin! Redwood Material (Straubel owned) will be handling the battery recycling. A Tesla battery pack can be removed with only 16 bolts.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Battery Day on 9/22 will be mind blowing! Yes, they will be introducing a 2nd generation of batteries but that‘s just a teaser. My best GUESS is that the real mind blowing part will be the introduction of V2G (vehicle to grid) charging using Tesla owned chargers that Tesla will pay for (hardware and labor included). The million mile batteries are the key to making it possible.

Think about buying and selling energy using your Tesla BEV. Think about leasing your battery pack from Tesla. Think about the power going out for days at home due to a storm and using your Tesla to power your home for 2-3 days. When it needs to be recharged hit up a Tesla Supercharger and rinse and repeat. With a million Tesla vehicles now on the road the V2G vision will soon be a reality. Utility companies will no longer have the need for new power plants. Wind and solar energy can be stored. Energy can be purchased low when demand is down and sold when its high. It is all part of Tesla‘s vision to a transition the world to sustainable energy and wean us off fossil fuels.

I could be 100% wrong but I think I put the puzzle pieces together. Tesla hires the cream of the crop engineers who will make it happen. And Tesla announced a 5 for 1 stock split today!

I didn’t know about the stock split. You saved my ass. I had a limit order to buy with no termination if the price dropped to some value but many times what the new price will be. Canceled.

I work on smart grid smart building technology and V2V/V2G are still in the research stage as far as I can tell. The standards are there but not the policy or the broad-based implementation. It ‘will’ be awesome when it happens.

 

[MilliM]

My best GUESS is that the real mind blowing part will be the introduction of V2G (vehicle to grid) charging using Tesla owned chargers that Tesla will pay for (hardware and labor included). The million mile batteries are the key to making it possible.

This times 1000. As I’m laying here reading about earthquake swarms and (very) near-term highly elevated risk for the Big One hitting us, and realizing the grid could go down for a protracted period of time rendering my solar panels useless, I really wish I had a V2G capable Cybertruck parked in my driveway