How high will FSD and the base price go?

[timjwright2.0]

I'm wondering how high the FSD software and the single motor price go by the time the CT is delivered? Elon said the price of FSD will continue to go up until it is not affordable. Its already up $1K. Will the CT price also go up. Will it be too expensive for all but the wealthiest by the time they are in production? It appears the CT will be so valuable with FSD the Elon will hold on to them for his Robotaxi service thus meeting his objective of "accelerating the transition to EV". Those of us that pre-ordered may find ourselves with the delivery of a CT now worth 2X, 3X, or 5X what we paid. What are your thoughts?

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[Jhodgesatmb]

I don’t know where you got that $10,600 figure. It’s $8,000 for everyone as far as I know. We just priced an MY last week, at a Tesla showroom, and it was $8,000. I have never heard of Tesla changing prices on reservation holders.

 

[timjwright2.0]

I don’t know where you got that $10,600 figure. It’s $8,000 for everyone as far as I know. We just priced an MY last week, at a Tesla showroom, and it was $8,000. I have never heard of Tesla changing prices on reservation holders.

I know its weird but I was on the site last week and noticed the price was $10,600 for FSD and my stomach went into a knot. I thought I waited too long. Then I noticed it said CA in the top right for region and I changed it to US and the price went back to $8000. Wierd I know, But glad to hear that is not the case any more. I'm now realizing that CA is Canada, not California DUH!

 

[Newton]

I know its weird but I was on the site last week and noticed the price was $10,600 for FSD and my stomach went into a knot. I thought I waited too long. Then I noticed it said CA in the top right for region and I changed it to US and the price went back to $8000. Wierd I know, But glad to hear that is not the case any more. I'm now realizing that CA is Canada, not California DUH!

you should edit your 1st post, I HAD to come down here to find out if that was true, but clearly it was canada price, not CA price.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Is the exchange rate that different? It’s been a few years since I have been to Canada.

 

[Newton]

I'm wondering how high the FSD software and the single motor price go by the time the CT is delivered? Elon said the price of FSD will continue to go up until it is not affordable. Its already up $1K. Will the CT price also go up. Will it be too expensive for all but the wealthiest by the time they are in production? It appears the CT will be so valuable with FSD the Elon will hold on to them for his Robotaxi service thus meeting his objective of "accelerating the transition to EV". Those of us that pre-ordered may find ourselves with the delivery of a CT now worth 2X, 3X, or 5X what we paid. What are your thoughts?

That's a great question. Personally I wouldn't be getting FSD (full self driving) until the car can make me money on the upcoming tesla rideshare network. but if I had the money, like most buyers seem to have, I would get it.

By buying now we are locking in that 7, Or 8k price, kinda like one of those crowdfunding sites. Because I dont think the current FSD is worth 8k.

I dont think the rideshare network will be up and fully working for like 7-10years.
I do suspect very specific areas will open in maybe 2 years.
Example: tesla factory to a specific parking lot. Basically specific routes that dont change much, and ending/starting points that can have a specific self driving drop off spot. (It seems the summon feature still has lots of problems)

One thing I noticed around the tesla hq, where lyft lvl5 is near too, the roads are immaculate.

 

[Sweaza]

Is the exchange rate that different? It’s been a few years since I have been to Canada.

Calgary, AB here. For the last few years, the exchange rate has been 1.35ish from USD to CAD. $10,600 is the current Canadian FSD price - which is actually less than the actual exchange rate.

 

[timjwright2.0]

That's a great question. Personally I wouldn't be getting FSD (full self driving) until the car can make me money on the upcoming tesla rideshare network. but if I had the money, like most buyers seem to have, I would get it.

By buying now we are locking in that 7, Or 8k price, kinda like one of those crowdfunding sites. Because I dont think the current FSD is worth 8k.

I dont think the rideshare network will be up and fully working for like 7-10years.
I do suspect very specific areas will open in maybe 2 years.
Example: tesla factory to a specific parking lot. Basically specific routes that dont change much, and ending/starting points that can have a specific self driving drop off spot. (It seems the summon feature still has lots of problems)

One thing I noticed around the tesla hq, where lyft lvl5 is near too, the roads are immaculate.

Those are some good thoughts. You have me thinking ..... Elon is convinced that FSD "functionality" will be complete this year with "certainty". He says that the neuro network is learning very fast and we are at 99 percent now. Just have the "long march of 9s (.99999999) to go" for the 5x better than Humans. He meets with the FSD team weekly and has the latest Version in his car that "needs almost no intervention to work each day" through many environments including changing "construction" routes and conditions. Tesla owns about 99 percent of the driving data and are transitioning to AI vs. Algorithms so they are well ahead of the competition. So there are a few reasons to be optimistic. I suffer from confirmation bias because I have pre-ordered 12 cybertrucks for my robotaxi fleet!

 

[Newton]

Those are some good thoughts. You have me thinking ..... Elon is convinced that FSD "functionality" will be complete this year with "certainty". He says that the neuro network is learning very fast and we are at 99 percent now. Just have the "long march of 9s (.99999999) to go" for the 5x better than Humans. He meets with the FSD team weekly and has the latest Version in his car that "needs almost no intervention to work each day" through many environments including changing "construction" routes and conditions. Tesla owns about 99 percent of the driving data and are transitioning to AI vs. Algorithms so they are well ahead of the competition. So there are a few reasons to be optimistic. I suffer from confirmation bias because I have pre-ordered 12 cybertrucks for my robotaxi fleet!

eek, thats a lot of money.
I watch tesla videos on youtube a decent amount (but dont own a tesla). They (the tesla youtubers) who are usually very biased toward Tesla, say all the time that the self driving has quite a lot of issues. people having alot of problem with the summon feature too.
The timeline I said before is an educated guess and seemingly close to others. I HIGHLY DOUBT they are near 99% more like 80. but 0-80 is as elon like to say: several orders of magnitude easier than 80-99. and 99-99.999 is probably a couple times harder than 80-90%

if they are having poblems just navigating a parking lot (summon) they arnt at 99%

maybe the 99% to him means the programming is basically complete (as much as they think they need) but of course nothing in life is perfect, especially programs. they will realize they need to add other things. I think they will need more sensors too.

but then again, It could be up and working full steam in 3 years, nobody really knows

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

eek, thats a lot of money.
I watch tesla videos on youtube a decent amount (but dont own a tesla). They (the tesla youtubers) who are usually very biased toward Tesla, say all the time that the self driving has quite a lot of issues. people having alot of problem with the summon feature too.
The timeline I said before is an educated guess and seemingly close to others. I HIGHLY DOUBT they are near 99% more like 80. but 0-80 is as elon like to say: several orders of magnitude easier than 80-99. and 99-99.999 is probably a couple times harder than 80-90%

if they are having poblems just navigating a parking lot (summon) they arnt at 99%

maybe the 99% to him means the programming is basically complete (as much as they think they need) but of course nothing in life is perfect, especially programs. they will realize they need to add other things. I think they will need more sensors too.

but then again, It could be up and working full steam in 3 years, nobody really knows

Ones point of view about FSD and vehicle autonomous driving has a lot to do with a lot of factors. ML can do some amazing things (and I am ‘not’ an ML fan) and I have confidence that it will continue to improve to a point where it will, indeed, be safer than most drivers in most conditions. 80%? 99% etc.? Those numbers mean nothing to me. What is ‘my’ timeline? I am at retirement age and I know that my parents and grandparents really had issues with their own autonomy when they got older. I see FSD as a sort of guarantee of autonomy as I get older. Does it have to be perfect Level 5 to extend my autonomy? No. But it does have to be there within my usable period, say 10-15 years, and I am happy to shell out $7,000 for that guarantee. Like an insurance policy. Given what ML has achieved in just 5 years I am confident. So what are your requirements? I am interested.

 

[Newton]

Ones point of view about FSD and vehicle autonomous driving has a lot to do with a lot of factors. ML can do some amazing things (and I am ‘not’ an ML fan) and I have confidence that it will continue to improve to a point where it will, indeed, be safer than most drivers in most conditions. 80%? 99% etc.? Those numbers mean nothing to me. What is ‘my’ timeline? I am at retirement age and I know that my parents and grandparents really had issues with their own autonomy when they got older. I see FSD as a sort of guarantee of autonomy as I get older. Does it have to be perfect Level 5 to extend my autonomy? No. But it does have to be there within my usable period, say 10-15 years, and I am happy to shell out $7,000 for that guarantee. Like an insurance policy. Given what ML has achieved in just 5 years I am confident. So what are your requirements? I am interested.

Im in the minority for sure, being younger and having less cash. For me the only reason I would buy fsd is to have the vehicle earn me money. I'm fairly confident that's the only requirement for me. So that would mean full lvl5 with no driver needed, and of course government allowing this. I'm in CA, so its a good bet the that requirement would easily be met.

I enjoy driving, dont have kids, dont drink (that's another wierd issue, fsd with drunk passangers) so i dont really have any reason to get it. And 8k$ for a fun toy is way to much for me.

I dont think it just needs to be safer than most drivers in most situations, the autonomous driving network this thread is about is assuming full lvl 5 no driver in the car. It needs to be able to handle everything that's thrown at it. I guess 1 can argue that it can have a default pull over on the side of the road, instead of having a person take over, but even that will have issues.

Machine learning is a very cool tool and really quite amazing. But it still requires the humans to "prime" it. And we hardly know what exactly we are doing half the time.

 

[timjwright2.0]

Ones point of view about FSD and vehicle autonomous driving has a lot to do with a lot of factors. ML can do some amazing things (and I am ‘not’ an ML fan) and I have confidence that it will continue to improve to a point where it will, indeed, be safer than most drivers in most conditions. 80%? 99% etc.? Those numbers mean nothing to me. What is ‘my’ timeline? I am at retirement age and I know that my parents and grandparents really had issues with their own autonomy when they got older. I see FSD as a sort of guarantee of autonomy as I get older. Does it have to be perfect Level 5 to extend my autonomy? No. But it does have to be there within my usable period, say 10-15 years, and I am happy to shell out $7,000 for that guarantee. Like an insurance policy. Given what ML has achieved in just 5 years I am confident. So what are your requirements? I am interested.

Great insights thank you! My requirement is that the regulators have evidence that FSD is safer than humans. Once it's safer than humans I think that's all that matters. Elon believes that the new ML will surprise everyone with its capabilities. So far all we have seen are algorithms not ML. It will be fascinating to see how much improved the ML update is by the end of the year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Great insights thank you! My requirement is that the regulators have evidence that FSD is safer than humans. Once it's safer than humans I think that's all that matters. Elon believes that the new ML will surprise everyone with its capabilities. So far all we have seen are algorithms not ML. It will be fascinating to see how much improved the ML update is by the end of the year.

ML is really only linear regression on steroids, so I wouldn’t expect more than algorithms and linear algebra on the computational end of things. But it is truly amazing what can be achieved with this, a boat load of data, and a lot of subject matter expertise. For the record, to me what autopilot does well is already safer than a lot of humans. I wish I had the faith you have in the regulatory mechanism.

 

[SkillZZilla]

I'm wondering how high the FSD software and the single motor price go by the time the CT is delivered? Elon said the price of FSD will continue to go up until it is not affordable. Its already up $1K. Will the CT price also go up. Will it be too expensive for all but the wealthiest by the time they are in production? It appears the CT will be so valuable with FSD the Elon will hold on to them for his Robotaxi service thus meeting his objective of "accelerating the transition to EV". Those of us that pre-ordered may find ourselves with the delivery of a CT now worth 2X, 3X, or 5X what we paid. What are your thoughts?

I am Canadian, and locked in my FSD at 9,000k before it went up. Glad I did that.

 

[cybrtrk_maybe]

... if I had the money, like most buyers seem to have, I would get it. ...

If all goes as planned, and if I follow through with getting one, then it will be my last vehicle. I'm not sure about having the money like most buyers have as I will need to get a loan, but the driving assistance will keep me mobile.