Can we expect the Cybertruck in 2021 -- What's your opinion?

[DallasCyberTruck]

I think this video sheds some light on a few facts that were mentioned on Battery Day.

Sorry if this had been posted before. I just found it very informative.

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[empiredown]

I would say an Opinion vice an Analysis. But he got his clicks...

Only time will tell, but here is my take: Factory is moving ahead of schedule. Regardless of motors, we are talking about the same size trucks, so they could use different battery tech for the higher ranges and that might have to come later/will cost more. The 20 million they "lost" for the roadster referral program pales in comparison to what they made and 20 million, while not a small amount of money, is small when viewed relative to what Tesla is earning across the board. (Let's face it, it is a rounding error on what Elon gained in one day and pole-vaulted to become the forth richest person on the planet as a result) I believe the whole "over 600K orders and we stopped counting" is BS, even for a company as non-traditional as Tesla. In the end I bet the actual number of orders winds up being closer to 300k (if we ever find out) and they will be starting to produce them around this time next year. Why? Because when has Elon ever been "right" recently and not actually benefited (along with the rest of us) from being "wrong" in the end?

I ordered a Dual and I bet, based on above, those come out first and will have "older" tech, as they will cost more but will be the most sold numbers thus netting more in the end. And yes, I am biased. And yes, I am trying to influence the universe in my favor.

Thanks very much for posting the vid! Great stuff!

SS

 

[Crissa]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Deliveries

First three years of Model 3 they sold half a million. By 2018, a quarter of pre-orders bailed.

That's still over 400,000 cars that were pre-ordered.

Cybertruck has no reason to be less anticipated.

-Crissa

 

[WildhavenMI]

Gotta have faith. Strange to say faith about a car, but there are times I believe in that "manifest reality" bullshit.

I think that it's a fair assumption that people involved in the manufacturing of this vehicle cruise these forums. I also believe that if we crap all over timelines they'll feel demotivated, and that'll bleed into real work.

To the person reading this post who is working on building the manufacturing processes that will ultimately lead to the production of the CT, I believe in you. I believe that making the thing is the hard part, and that you are up to the job. I believe you are undertaking one of the hardest things to do anyone has ever done, and doing it under extreme pressure in a very interesting time.

I have faith in you. I have faith in your abilities. I have faith in your intelligence and your drive. If I ever meet you in person, hypothetical person reading this post, I will buy you a beer and thank you in earnest.

 

[Blue Steel]

I don't see any reason currently that it will not be in production by the end of 2021. There may be some unforeseen circumstance, like a tidal wave of Covid cases, that causes a delay. Other than that everything seems to be ahead of schedule.

 

[BillyGee]

I think it all hinges on how efficiently the machines to build the truck can be built. From a manufacturing perspective it looks easier, but we will see how fast the line comes up. Ideally once the process gets rolling it's ripsnortingly fast considering this will be the 5th unique vehicle (well, 4 and 1/2th) they have built and I bet the pilot line process is pretty streamlined by now.

I'm optimistic, but it hinges on a lot of timelines. They'd technically be on target releasing it the day after Christmas of next year, but I'm hoping to get mine at the beginning of quarter 4 for work.

 

[Cyberpartyboy21]

This is somewhat off point, but I really hope they do something with that dash. If not, it will be infinitely customizable, as almost everyone will want to cover it.

 

[EVCanuck]

I don't want to sound pessimistic but I think members of this forum may expect getting their Cybertrucks starting with spring of 2022 and this is the best case scenario.
Austin factory will be completely focused on Model Y ramp up first due to assured demand and increased profit margins on that vehicle.
We don't even know if the final design is approved yet. Cybertruck ramp up will not be a walk in the park. Procurement logistics alone will be a very different challenge from Model Y/3 experience.

 

[DallasCyberTruck]

I hate to break it to our members outside the great state of Texas. This is not China or California We’re dealing with here. As much as Austin wants to advertise itself as “progressive”, it is the state capital and is run by the “Good ole boy network“. Anything that the “establishment“ does not like or is not the way they imagined it, would delay construction and eventually production by weeks or months.
Personally, I hope Tesla does everything as planned and there is no rocking the boat.
A whole bunch of us Texans want this truck after all!

 

[C T Rick]

It would be a great tax Benefit for those of us that can get the truck before the end of 2021 and be able to write it off starting 2021. It also depends how the tax laws will be once the election is done. Lots of unknowns as to what party wins and what direction Capital business Investments are treated. As a contractor, Right now the entire truck can be depreciated.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

Rick

 

[Hookalakupua]

Yes, Yes and more Yes!!! It will be in production with some unknown number shipped in 2021 as planned! There’s another thread with a dozen pages on just this topic. I’ve been willing to take fun little bets with those betting against it and although I may live near the Nevada Gigafactory and might have a variety of reasons why, I’ll just say this... Elon is NOT allowing Rivian to bring their EV truck to market in 2021 without also doing the same. It truly is as pure and simple as that and time will tell!! ??

 

[Gordon_M]

Just a disappointed note from someone who ordered a tri-motor they will never get, because I live outside the US, which is a real pity. I expect the 'export' version will be a lot less fun, and a lot further away.

I'd be surprised if Elon didn't push buttons to get something out of the factory and sold before the end of 2021, not sure how much though.

 

[Crissa]

Just a disappointed note from someone who ordered a tri-motor they will never get, because I live outside the US, which is a real pity.

Bit early to say that. There's not even a UK launch date for the Y yet. It only has 'maybe 2022.' And your limitations are mostly based on emissions, so it's likely to come in 2024. You do get the heaviest version of the Ranger, which isn't the F-150 but about as burly as the Cybertruck.

The UK isn't well positioned for imports, you don't get everything anyhow with your weird driving position and now your weird trade deals.

-Crissa

 

[Gordon_M]

I can see all right hand drive production except S&X coming from China some time down the line. For example it would be cheaper to make RHD Y in China and ship a few to the UK than make them in Berlin and ship the bulk of them to Australia, New Zealand, and so on.

Whether the driving position and the trade deals are weird depends on if you are inside looking out, or outside looking in. Nothing more entertaining than watching an American tourist at a UK airport car park exit trying to master Right Hand Drive and a manual gearbox on the same day. Of course that was back in the day when tourists were a thing.

 

[Crissa]

It's more likely any exported 3s will be going to India, not the UK.

There are no announced or leaked plans to make the S or X anywhere but Fremont so far.

-Crissa